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Mesoscale Discussion 449 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL INTO SRN GA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...
VALID 160643Z - 160815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 146 CONTINUES.
A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 146.
WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND A
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF IT...WILL ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHWEST GEORGIA/EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
ZONE...A NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN DISCRETE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPROACHING THE DOTHAN AL AREA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ...NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
ALBANY...THROUGH 08-10Z. ALTHOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
MAY CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...HODOGRAPHS CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS STILL SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31548591 31758527 31788471 31708418 31368396 30938423
30828482 30868537 30908584 31218613 31548591
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