SPC AC 221256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
   strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
   northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas
   and much of Missouri.

   ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley...
   A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late
   today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface
   lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as
   the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture
   return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the
   Plains.

   Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead
   to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
   through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated
   instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri
   during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial
   storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast
   Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the
   heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and
   veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700
   mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into
   southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of
   the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent
   outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight
   Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though
   highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related
   to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from
   far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas.

   Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas,
   lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of
   storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with
   both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air
   mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support
   isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime.

   ...North-Central High Plains...
   Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon
   north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and
   developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate
   minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest
   flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger
   wind gusts.

   ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025

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