SPC AC 090142

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0842 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   MO INTO WESTERN KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHERN AL...FAR NORTHWEST
   GA...

   CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms remain likely this evening from parts of the
   mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern
   Plains.  All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail,
   and potentially significant damaging winds are possible.  Some
   tornadoes may be strong, especially this evening from far northern
   Alabama into southeast Tennessee.

   ...Ozarks into the TN Valley and Carolinas...
   Numerous strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from the
   Ozark region east-southeastward through the TN Valley and Carolinas.
   Convection has largely remained semi-discrete thus far,  but a
   gradual transition to more of a linear or cluster mode (still with
   embedded supercells) will be possible tonight. Very large hail and
   tornadoes (possibly strong) will continue to be a threat with any
   persistent supercells, with some increase in the damaging wind
   threat possible if organized upscale growth occurs. Some severe
   threat may spread eastward across areas of eastern TN into the
   Carolinas that were affected by earlier severe storms. 

   With intense storms ongoing across southern MO and recent HRRR runs
   depicting bow echo development across southeast MO, a portion of the
   Moderate Risk has been maintained. Parts of the Enhanced and
   Moderate Risks have also been expanded southeastward, with
   regenerative supercell development possible this evening from
   southern middle  and southeast TN into far northern AL. A small 15%
   tornado area has been added in this area as well, due to the
   potential for tornadic supercells into mid/late evening. 

   ...ArkLaTex vicinity into central TX...
   Isolated storms have developed along/ahead of a front from eastern
   OK into north-central/northeast TX. Extreme instability and strong
   deep-layer shear will support a threat of very large hail with any
   sustained supercell, along with a risk for localized severe gusts.
   The extreme instability and primarily supercell mode will also
   support some tornado threat, even though low-level flow/shear is
   generally modest across the region. Storm coverage and intensity
   should diminish by late evening into the overnight, as MLCINH
   gradually increases.

   ..Dean.. 05/09/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z