Mesoscale Discussion 0021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...southwest LA and southeast TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 082321Z - 090015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging
   gusts, and hail this evening. Isolated tornadoes will remain
   possible near the warm front.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC a band of thunderstorms was ongoing
   across southeast TX into western LA along a surging cold front.
   Ahead of the front, a supercell on the TX/LA border is quickly
   approaching the northern end of the warm sector. A brief uptick in
   intensity is possible as the storm approaches the warm front.
   However, the narrow warm sector and the encroaching cold front may
   result in gradual elevation above the surface with time. Still a
   brief tornado, wind and hail risk may evolve with the storm over the
   next hour.

   Farther southwest recent lightning trends show the undercutting
   front has surged ahead of the convection limiting updraft strength.
   While storms have been slow to mature, an increase in the nocturnal
   low-level jet may support a slow uptick in storm coverage and
   intensity later this evening. Veered low-level flow would support a
   broken/linear band of storms with eventual upscale growth into a
   more organized QLCS possible with time. Damaging wind gusts and
   embedded circulations capable of tornadoes appear possible across
   the remainder of WW1.

   ..Lyons.. 01/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29319396 29289444 29359513 29519522 29789500 30099470
               30949380 31189348 31439291 31469235 31379196 31239174
               30609182 30099200 29819213 29379260 29319396