Mesoscale Discussion 0020
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082138Z - 082345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will eventually spread into southeast
   Louisiana, but the shorter-term risk is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis (as verified by visible
   imagery) shows the surface warm front extending from Jefferson Davis
   Parish southeastward and off the coast of southeast LA.  The
   boundary is lifting northward, and moist/unstable surface conditions
   should move into southeast LA in the next few hours.  However,
   radar/satellite imagery suggest very little robust convection to the
   south of the warm front, and recent HRRR solutions also lend doubt
   regarding thunderstorm coverage in the next few hours.  

   Nevertheless with very strong shear profiles in place, and
   increasing low-level moisture and instability, this area will be
   closely monitored for increasing thunderstorms south of the warm
   front.  If this trend develops, a tornado watch will be considered. 
   Otherwise, it might be a few hours from now as the main cold front
   approaches from the west.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   28768960 29109085 30029165 30879142 31119026 30178894
               29218879 28768960