Mesoscale Discussion 0598
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

   Valid 020321Z - 020515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues in WW173.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of central Texas
   has been widely scattered, with cells occasionally intensifying to
   severe limits. Thus far reports have been limited to a few hail
   reports and reports of tree damage. Trends in VAD data from EWX
   Austin/San Antonio indicate the expected increase in the low-level
   jet is underway with increasing curvature of the low level hodograph
   and increasing storm relative helicity. Under this warm advection
   regime, storm mode has remained very disorganized and clustered.
   Forecast from the HRRR have continued to favor eventual organization
   of storms into an overnight MCS. Should this occur, the risk for
   damaging winds and possibly a tornado would increase. Given the
   favorable increase in wind profiles and continued favorably moist
   and unstable atmosphere, this area will continue to support a severe
   risk through the evening and overnight.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30819891 31249774 31549578 31569534 31379477 30949460
               30569478 30169520 29799714 29799844 29859877 30079901
               30319910 30819891