Mesoscale Discussion 0547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa...Northwestern Illinois...and far
   Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 272217Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk increasing. Watch likely to be issued within
   the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along the frontal boundary
   extending through central Iowa to areas just north of the
   Wisconsin/Illinois border. Air mass destabilization ahead of WW147
   has yielded MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and modest deep layer
   shear. VAD profiles from DMX depict a cyclonic curved hodograph with
   SFC to 1km shear profiles with 200 m2/s2. Surface vorticity is
   likely maximized further along the boundary, where thunderstorms
   have been developing.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41749264 42139243 42489192 42729123 42909050 42789018
               42629000 42288989 41928994 40799052 40439070 40269079
               40249124 40279179 40589230 41099252 41399259 41749264