Mesoscale Discussion 0478
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

   Valid 180700Z - 180830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and gusty wind threat continues
   early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly
   low-level jet noted on KTWX VWP will continue to support elevated
   supercell potential early this morning across parts of northeast KS
   and western MO. The primary supercell of interest at the moment near
   Topeka KS is north of a surface warm front over east-central KS.
   This thunderstorm should remain elevated in the short term while
   progressing eastward towards the Kansas City metro. Given adequate
   MUCAPE and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, isolated supercells
   across this area should continue to pose a threat for mainly large
   hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. But, some chance for strong/gusty
   winds around 50-60 mph may also be realized, as the depth of the
   near-surface stable layer does not appear prohibitively deep in RAP
   forecast soundings.

   ..Gleason.. 04/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39369636 39679604 39669501 39489438 39109408 38489416
               38459486 38869593 39079638 39369636