Mesoscale Discussion 0445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Missouri into southwestern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152045Z - 152215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon.
   Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats. Given the sparse
   nature of the potential severe threat, a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus continues to deepen south of a warm
   front draped across southeastern MO into southwestern IL, where
   diurnal heating has continued to erode convective inhibition and
   boost SBCAPE to over 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings in this region
   show elongated hodographs with minimal low-level curvature amid a
   mixed boundary layer, suggesting that damaging gusts and large hail
   would be the main threats with any storms that can develop and
   sustain themselves. The primary limiting factor for a more
   appreciable severe risk in eastern MO into IL is the lack of
   stronger deep-layer ascent, which should at least minimize storm
   coverage, and questions still remain if robust convection will
   develop at all. Given the aforementioned uncertainties, a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37839150 38279132 38479091 38649031 38628945 38418907
               38148901 37828934 37658983 37579074 37839150