Mesoscale Discussion 1239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central into eastern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101832Z - 102030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least a few damaging gusts remain possible over the
   next few hours. However, the spatial coverage of severe winds is
   expected to be relatively low overall and a Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KRLX radar data depict a small but
   highly organized MCS propagating across central WV, with
   semi-discrete storms exhibiting occasional transient supercell
   structures to the south of the bowing complex (some with a history
   of tree damage). 

   30-35 kts of effective bulk shear is evident across the Ohio
   Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions based on 18Z mesoanalysis, with the
   shear vectors orthogonal to the MCS. The bowing-structure MCS and
   nearby transient supercells are expected to remain organized through
   the mid afternoon hours. Nonetheless, buoyancy is marginal, with
   generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE noted (fueled primarily by 7-8
   C/km low-level lapse rates). The KRLX showed mainly 30-40 kts of
   leading-line flow about 200-500 ft AGL, and significant
   intensification is not expected. As such, gusty winds may accompany
   the stronger storms/bowing segments, and while a few severe gusts
   cannot be ruled out, the lack of more widespread damaging wind
   potential suggests a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not needed.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37428203 38218197 38628178 38818112 38808029 38787975
               38727964 38527962 38087986 37628046 37368109 37198153
               37198155 37428203