Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

   Areas affected...southern Missouri...southern Illinois...and western
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101825Z - 102030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop
   through the mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm
   winds will be the primary threat, although a tornado or two cannot
   be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield continues to wane in
   coverage early this afternoon across south-central Missouri.
   Furthermore, the associated cloud cover continues to thin -- with
   breaks in the coverage identified across southeast Missouri. These
   breaks in the cloud cover have allowed surface temperatures to warm
   into the upper 80s F in the presence of surface dewpoints in the
   low-to-mid 70s F, yielding surface-based CAPE between 2000-3000
   J/kg. As temperatures warm and surface inhibition diminishes,
   multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
   south of a front stretching from central Kansas east into central
   Illinois. Although the better deep-layer shear is confined to Kansas
   and southwest Missouri, it should be sufficiently strong along and
   near the front to support updraft organization, with large hail and
   damaging thunderstorm winds possible. With time merging thunderstorm
   cold pools and outflows should result in upscale growth into one or
   more MCSs that move south, posing a more widespread damaging wind
   threat. Before the eventual upscale growth, a tornado or two cannot
   be ruled out with discrete cells interacting with with front or
   other outflow boundaries.

   Given the likelihood of multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms
   this afternoon, one or more watches will likely be needed across the
   area.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36679313 36739406 37269439 37869395 38229163 38628993
               38888825 38768736 38128700 37148751 36668870 36658978
               36679313