Mesoscale Discussion 0640
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...and far
   Southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162211Z - 162345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of severe hail and gusty
   outflow winds are possible this evening. WW issuance not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows clearing/destabilization
   occurring and a broad/deepening cumulus field developing across much
   of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas, with a few convective
   cells developing north of WW 177 along a stationary boundary. The
   environment in this region is characterized by moderate buoyancy
   (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), and
   weak deep layer shear (20-25 kt effective shear), per the latest SPC
   mesoanalysis. A few strong storms are possible this evening with
   this activity, posing an isolated threat for severe hail and gusty
   outflow winds. Given the weakly sheared environment, storms will
   likely struggle to maintain organization and become somewhat
   disorganized. Thus, although a few strong storms are possible, watch
   issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38220330 38650423 39930341 40320197 39840052 38890020
               38270088 38220330