Mesoscale Discussion 0641
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

   Areas affected...Central Missouri and West-Central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162249Z - 170015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds
   possible this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface analysis shows a convectively
   reinforced east-west oriented baroclinic zone/stationary boundary
   situated along the I-70 corridor across central Missouri. South of
   this boundary, southerly low-level flow is present, with surface dew
   point temperatures in the low 60s F and 20-25 kt of flow at 850 mb.
   These factors are providing the impetus for renewed convective
   development along and north of the boundary. South of the boundary,
   the environment features modest indices to support severe
   convection, including MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, low-level lapse
   rates near 7-8 C/km, and effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt. Given
   these conditions, a few strong storms are possible, posing a threat
   for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Current trends suggest this
   activity should remain fairly isolated, and thus, a watch issuance
   is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38888996 37999218 38289444 38999350 39849064 38888996