MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...NERN NC...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 162145Z - 162315Z
   
   A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   TIME...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED INTO
   SERN VA AND NERN NC S OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOW
   VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT.
   
   A MODERATE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
   EVENING....SO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MAY BE MINOR. WEAK FORCING
   CURRENTLY MAKES IN SITU STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT
   STORMS UPSTREAM MAY STILL HAVE A SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
   
   LAT...LON   35957511 35217603 35297695 35797733 36647853 37117792
               37597692 37727581 37577550 36857573 36327551 35957511