MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND SERN  GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 162235Z - 170000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 890 WILL
   MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SERN GA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS GA HAS FOR THE
   MOST PART REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR DECREASING WITH
   SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS
   CONSISTENT WITH RECENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BASED ON VWP DATA FROM
   REGIONAL WSR 88-D/S. THAT BEING SAID...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH
   MUCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN
   FL INTO SERN GA. VWP DATA ONLY SHOWED SLIGHT VEERING OF PROFILES IN
   THE LOWEST KM SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
   GIVEN THIS FACT IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE WATCH ISSUANCES.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 11/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29668506 30418500 30928430 31308329 31878242 31828176
               31748135 31668124 31368119 31168130 30718143 30258137
               30008133 29888186 29698232 29578299 29648337 29778359
               29978381 30068419 29908437 29668506