MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN PA...CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OH...NRN
   PANHANDLE OF WV.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880...
   
   VALID 150141Z - 150345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 880 CONTINUES.
   
   PRIND WW CAN CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE AS PRIMARY BAND OF
   STG-SVR TSTMS SHIFTS OUT OF AREA.  ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...AND ANY PORTIONS OF WW LEFT BY 04Z CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AS SCHEDULED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOSTLY BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND FROM
   NWRN PA WSWWD ACROSS SWRN OH.  HOWEVER...SVR THREAT EFFECTIVELY WILL
   END BEHIND TSTM BAND...AS COMBINATION OF CAA AND STABILIZATION DUE
   TO CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OCCURS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SUGGEST
   DECREASING WIDTH AND MAGNITUDE OF FAVORABLE PRECONVECTIVE
   SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED FOR REMAINDER EVENING BY MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB
   250 J/KG.  MLCINH SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME IN PROGRESSIVELY
   NARROWER SECTOR OF UNSTABLE SFC-BASED PARCELS.  MOREOVER...AS
   CONVECTIVE REGIME SAGS SWD OUT OF WW AREA...IT ALSO WILL ENCOUNTER
   SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER MLCINH WITH SEWD EXTENT.  THIS APPEARS
   RELATED AT LEAST AS MUCH TO DECREASE IN THETAE WITH SWD
   EXTENT...AWAY FROM AXIS OF NARROW WAA CONVEYOR...AS TO DIABATIC SFC
   COOLING.  AS SUCH...SVR THREAT STILL EXISTS IN FORM OF OCNL DAMAGING
   GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME FROM NOW THROUGH
   REMAINDER EVENING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   39908362 40448207 41058020 41427872 40807833 40157940
               39598197 39208326 39908362