MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...IND...WRN/SRN OH...WRN/NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879...881...
   
   VALID 142332Z - 150100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 879...881...CONTINUES.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN WW 879 AND 881 WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
   PORTIONS OF NRN KY AND SRN IND/OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR A NEW WW.
   
   MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE AT 50 KT ACROSS SRN IL...CNTRL IND
   AND NRN OH AT 2320Z. STORMS ARE FOCUSED ALONG TWO SEPARATE COLD
   FRONTAL SEGMENTS...COINCIDENT WITH NARROW AXIS OF UPR 50S SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG /PER OBJECTIVE
   GUIDANCE/. AREA VWP/S AND RUC PFC/S SHOW VERY FAVORABLE WIND
   PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
   THREAT...CHARACTERIZED BY 90 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLY JET RESIDING ABOVE
   40 KT LLJ...YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH IN
   EXCESS OF 300 M2 S-2. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WHICH MAY PRECLUDE AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AND LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH
   COULD OTHERWISE AID IN COMPENSATING FOR THE MEAGER INSTABILITY.
   HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT INTO PART OF
   THE NIGHT...AND WOULD POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KY AND SRN IND/OH FOR
   AN ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   ..GARNER.. 11/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38898257 37208709 36269019 36389075 37569076 38188997
               38528899 40128744 41258401 39978222 38898257