MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-NERN KY...EXTREME SRN INDIANA NEAR
   OH RIVER...SWRN/S-CENTRAL OH.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 882...
   
   VALID 150300Z - 150400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 882
   CONTINUES.
   
   WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE AS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION PASSES...AND
   ANY REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
   04Z.
   
   OVERALL SVR THREAT ACROSS WW APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED...AND SHOULD
   DECREASE THROUGH NEXT 1-2 HOURS SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.  MEANWHILE...UNTIL CONVECTION EXITS WW...ISOLATED
   DAMAGING GUSTS STILL ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASINGLY NARROW AND
   WEAK SLIVER OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...CHARACTERIZED BY
   MLCAPE AOB 250 J/KG...FROM SRN OH TO N-CENTRAL KY.  ACTIVITY WILL
   MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER MLCINH...RELATED BOTH TO WEAKER
   AMBIENT THETAE AND TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING.  REMAINING CONVECTION
   WILL STAY QUASI-LINEAR IN MODE GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF ZONE OF FORCING
   WITH RESPECT TO ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...BUT WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
   AND WEAK PROFILE OF BUOYANCY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   37458697 38968438 39428304 39228255 38448289 38088377
               37238585 37148612 37458697