MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND N-CENTRAL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 120457Z - 120700Z
   
   SMALL CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
   FOARD/WILBARGER/WICHITA COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
   GROWTH...PERHAPS INVOLVING MERGER WITH INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTION
   TO ITS SE BETWEEN SPS-RPH.  IF THAT OCCURS...STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SEWD INTO REGIME OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
   AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SUPPORTED BY EWD-SHIFTING AND
   SLOWLY-VEERING LLJ.  MODIFIED FWD RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MUCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTED BY JUXTAPOSITION OF
   WAA BENEATH COOLING ALOFT RELATED TO OVHD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS 
   EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS...MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
   EXTRAPOLATED 00Z RAOB ANALYSES.  CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
   SHALLOW WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WELL BENEATH 300-MB LEVEL...LIMITING
   CAPE DESPITE STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED IN SUPPORT OF OCNL POTENTIAL FOR STORM
   ROTATION ALOFT.
   
   RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
   ABOVE SHALLOW BUT STRENGTHENING REGIME OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY.
    WHILE FORMER SUPPORTS DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION AND WIND
   POTENTIAL...LATTER OFFSETS THAT TO CONSIDERABLE EXTENT...GIVEN
   MLCINH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 J/KG ACROSS PROSPECTIVE PATH.  THEREFORE
   ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT MAY RESULT FROM
   UPSCALE/FORWARD-PROPAGATION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED/SPORADIC
   INSTEAD OF WELL-ORGANIZED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   33839954 34169910 33869783 33049676 32509734 32239830
               33179925 33839954