MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PANHANDLE OF TX...CAPROCK/LOW-ROLLING
   PLAINS OF NW TX...WRN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 120032Z - 120300Z
   
   BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
   CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SVR...WILL PROCEED EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA.  PRIND ACTIVITY IS PAST PEAK SVR POTENTIAL...WHICH
   SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 01Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 
   MEANWHILE LARGE HAIL IS MAIN CONCERN.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE
   REGION...WITH WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS ERN
   FRINGES AMA AREA...CROSSING I-27 BETWEEN CANYON-PVW THEN GENERALLY
   SSWWD TO BETWEEN MAF-INK.  COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD
   ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS.  MODEL SOUNDING AND JTN PROFILER SHOW FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 J/KG AND CORRIDOR OF
   40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF
   CONVECTIVE BAND.  30-35 KT LLJ E OF DRYLINE SHOULD MAINTAIN
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...WHILE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IS MAINTAINED BY VEERING OF MID-UPPER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
   TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
   FAVORABLE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST THAT SFC DIABATIC
   COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASINGLY SFC-BASED PARCELS IN MOIST
   SECTOR.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG
   RETREATING DRYLINE.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL BECOME LESS PROBABLE WITH
   TIME THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BASED ON THOSE THERMAL TRENDS THAT
   YIELD STRENGTHENING MLCINH TO ITS E.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   33650109 35520086 36410021 36309929 34959930 33729986
               33349991 33170059 33650109