MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121722Z - 121845Z
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA
   BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS FAR ERN NC. 
   ISOLATED THREATS EXIST FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF
   TORNADO...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS PRECLUDES THE NEED
   FOR A WW.
   
   AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER ERN
   JONES COUNTY NC ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.  THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
   REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   30-35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION /MULTICELLS AND A FEW
   SUPERCELLS/.  ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER SERN NC WILL
   MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE OVER
   EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
   A SMALL MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THESE LATTER
   AREAS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID STRONGER
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS /AS INDICATED BY JONES COUNTY STORM/.
   
   MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE PRODUCTION TODAY.  THUS...
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE
   GREATER THREATS.  THE LATTER WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE-3 KM CAPE
   VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG COMBINED WITH SURFACE VORTICITY IN VICINITY
   OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FAVORING LOW LEVEL STRETCHING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   34967794 35487728 36027632 36257548 35737523 34907557
               34417672 33927768 33757797 33797848 34107875 34657837
               34967794