MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN NEB...WRN SWRN SD...FAR NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 062019Z - 062215Z
   
   INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH WIND LATER THIS
   EVENING. A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL CO INTO
   SERN WY AND INTO WRN SD WHERE WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR WAS PUSHING WWD.
   HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INITIALLY
   LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER NRN CO...BUT WITH
   TIME...FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
   FORCING WILL ALSO BE STRONG NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TREKS NNEWD
   INTO SWRN SD THIS EVENING. HERE...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION UPDRAFTS
   AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.
   
   TO THE S...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
   MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
   IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL
   MOISTURE...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A LINE OF CELLS OR A MERGED LINE OF
   CELLS IS MOST LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   43560172 41990136 40790120 39980122 39800206 39980259
               40430285 41340444 41720529 42590583 43650534 44600437
               44720330 44440241 44040195 43560172