MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS / FAR SWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 062250Z - 070045Z
   
   MONITORING PRIMARILY NWRN KS INTO FAR SWRN NEB FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION RESULTING IN ISOLD STORM COVERAGE WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL RISK.  MORE SPARSE STORM COVERAGE/POSSIBILITIES
   MAY EXIST FARTHER S INTO SWRN KS.
   
   IMPRESSIVE UPPER PV ANOMALY ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
   CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SERN WY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT SHIFTS INTO NEB AND WRN SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
   RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE
   NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT FARTHER W FROM THE CO/WY/NEB
   BORDER SWD THRU THE LIC VICINITY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY
   IMPROVING ACROSS FAR NWRN KS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
   PLUME--CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.  CINH
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN CONCERT WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE S/W
   TROUGH /ESP. WITH NWD EXTENT/ AS VERTICALLY STUNTED HIGH-BASED CU
   FIELD OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE.  LATEST CONVECTIVE RESOLVING MODEL
   OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING STORM COVERAGE/TIMING ALTHOUGH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF STORMS MAY DEPEND ON STORMS INITIATING PRIOR TO DUSK
   /I.E. 23-01Z PERIOD/.  LATER THIS EVENING /AFTER 02Z/ THE COLD FRONT
   IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
   STORMS DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR BAND ALONG THE FRONT.  AS
   SUCH...GIVEN BACKGROUND STRONG WIND FIELD AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AN
   ISOLD SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   37570179 40270193 40270016 39909979 37520012 37270057
               37240121 37570179