MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...E CNTRL NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 052007Z - 052200Z
   
   SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...IF ANY.
   
   AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS
   THE TX PANHANDLE IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED
   THIS AREA...WITH WAVE CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...A
   COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS TIGHTENING OVER ERN NM...BUT
   CU FIELDS WERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY.  
   
   STRONG INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER SERN NM/W CNTRL TX...NEAR AND S
   OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP HERE.
   HOWEVER...RAPID WARMING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...AND WITH SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BEGIN WITH...IT WILL ONLY
   GET WEAKER WITH TIME DESPITE FURTHER HEATING. THEREFORE...RATHER
   SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH STRONG VEERING
   WIND PROFILES PERHAPS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
   SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   32680193 33420335 34060417 35120449 35740296 35590193
               35050144 33880134 33120100 32760105 32680193