MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN KS...CENTRAL-SERN NEB.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 150626Z - 150930Z
   
   ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER PORTIONS SCENTRAL NEB...INITIALLY
   NEAR GRI-HSI SWD TO VICINITY KS BORDER..SHOULD MOVE SEWD 15-20
   KT...SPREADING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS AREA BETWEEN CNK-BIE BY
   ABOUT 10Z.  NEARLY 1.5 INCHES ALREADY HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING PAST
   HOUR AT HSI.  WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...LOCALLY
   3-4 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES.
   
   SIMILAR LOCALIZED RATES ALSO MAY OCCUR IN NARROWER ZONE OF ELEVATED
   CONVERGENCE AND RELATED TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BVN-ONL-9V9
   LINE.  HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN NEB PORTION OF THAT CORRIDOR...WHILE
   MORE LIMITED DUE TO QUASISTATIONARY NATURE OF PRECIP BAND AND
   DISTANCE FROM OPTIMAL LLJ SUPPORT...WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THAT LACK
   OF MOVEMENT.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WITHIN
   BELT OF RETURN FLOW...ALREADY EVIDENT IN 00Z 850-MB ANALYSIS AND
   HAVING STRENGTHENED SINCE.  CHANNEL OF UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   INCLUDES 850-MB DEW POINTS 14-16 DEG C...BASED ON 00Z LMN/DDC
   RAOBS...AS WELL AS PW FROM RAOBS AND SUBSEQUENT GPS READINGS OF
   1.25-1.5 INCHES.  STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS CURRENTLY ARE
   EVIDENT JUST LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS OVER NERN KS AND SWRN
   NEB...HOWEVER THESE ARE FCST TO VEER AND INCREASE IN LENGTH OVER
   N-CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS.  THIS
   WILL OCCUR AS LLJ VEERS...RESULTING IN EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER REGION.  NRN PORTION OF
   COMPLEX MAY OUTRUN THESE PROCESSES AND WEAKEN OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN
   NEB...WHILE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER SRN PORTION NEAR AND S
   OF KS BORDER...WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN KS WHERE
   STRONGEST MUCAPE WILL REMAIN -- I.E. AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THROUGH
   AT LEAST 09Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   39599950 39939880 40259827 40669807 41879844 41589812
               42609883 42919863 42699838 42389818 41719785 41289730
               40809642 40129648 39549678 39219836 39599950