MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 150822Z - 151045Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER NWRN ND...MOVING FROM MCKENZIE INTO NRN DUNN
   COUNTY AS OF 08Z...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SEWD
   TOWARD BIS AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.  POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OR UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS ATTM...GIVEN
   PRESENCE OF NONTRIVIAL CINH AND SMALL SPATIAL SCALE OF MOST
   FAVORABLE FOCI.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM NEARBY WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
   
   SHORT-FUSE GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED VWP WIND TRENDS INDICATE 850-MB
   WARM FRONT HAS MOVED/REDEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND EXTENDS
   NEAR LINE FROM NEAR SDY-DIK-PHP...WITH MOST AXIS AT THAT LEVEL
   PARALLEL AND TO ITS N FROM NEAR ISN-BIS-MBG.  ALONG AND JUST E OF
   THIS BOUNDARY...STG SLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
   FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 30-40 KT.  STRONGEST/ELEVATED
   LOW-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG OR JUST NE OF FRONT...WHICH
   SHOULD DRIFT EWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS.  ACCOMPANYING
   CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MUCINH...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT SUPPORTING MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN
   NWRN ND ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN SD.  HOWEVER...MUCINH
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
   CONVECTION TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY ONCE SUCH TRENDS COMMENCE.  VWP
   AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR--I.E.
   EFFECTIVE MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT FOR NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   47680301 48000198 47960108 47329999 46499996 46060067
               46610162 47680301