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Mesoscale Discussion 1983 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND AND N-CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150142Z - 150315Z
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL.
AN ISOLATED STORM OVER N-CNTRL SD HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED
WARM FRONT. THIS STORM WAS LIKELY SFC BASED AS IT WAS ANCHORED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND WAS DISPLAYING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL ND...A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS APPEARED TO
BE ELEVATED WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RAOB FROM BIS. WITH
TIME THE SD STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW OR MOVES OFF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT BY THE 00Z ABR RAOB WHICH
INDICATED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB WHICH WOULD NOT
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SFC BASED CONVECTION.
THIS BEING SAID...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYERS INDICATED BY BOTH THE BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CELLS THAT CAN BE
SUSTAINED.
..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2011
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45360139 45880184 46190191 46510190 46780147 46880072
46900006 46529929 45589821 44919821 44369839 44269885
44369952 45360139
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