MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL MS/AL INTO W CNTRL AND SW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091820Z - 092015Z
   
   IT IS NOT CERTAIN A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
   COULD REQUIRE ONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING...INHIBITION IS WEAKENING
   FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS
   IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.  DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT
   ALONG A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
   INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WITHIN BROADER SCALE ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST
   CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE
   PRESENCE OF LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG...AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH 21-22Z.  WITH ADDITIONAL
   HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN
   ENOUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING IN
   DOWNDRAFTS...TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND POTENTIAL
   DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A BELT OF
   MODEST...20-30 KT...WEST NORTHWESTERLY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   32989002 33088918 33258823 33448741 33918620 33818482
               33148405 32188298 31238387 31358529 31828660 31928828
               31868938 31949030 32139054 32739045 32989002