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Mesoscale Discussion 1914 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL...IND...WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091717Z - 091815Z
AN INCREASING THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
17Z VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM
NEAR CHICAGO JUST NW OF SPRINGFIELD...ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED THROUGH WRN MI/SWWD JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IL...INTO
CNTRL KS. USING PREFRONTAL OBS AND MODIFYING THE UPSTREAM 12Z
DAVENPORT SOUNDING...LITTLE TO IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IN
ADDITION TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAN DEVELOP. 17Z WV IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS HINTS OF A WEAK VORT MAX NEAR THE MO/IA/IL
BORDER...WHICH LENDS CERTAINTY TO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN
IL/NRN IND. RECENT HI-RES MODEL IMAGERY GENERALLY SUPPORTS
INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND STRONG WNWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39899032 40498909 41498683 41218523 40738466 40158496
39648706 39168909 39268995 39899032
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