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Mesoscale Discussion 1916 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NE CO...WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091847Z - 092045Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION REMAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEPENING
CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROBABLY WILL AID DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000
J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30+ KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW IS STRONG...AND CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 20-22Z... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
AROUND SIDNEY NEB.
..KERR.. 08/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42160514 42350444 41820303 41410214 40850136 40440113
40000148 40040229 40680302 40840364 41010440 42160514
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