MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN MS...SW TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071846Z - 072045Z
   
   ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL AR
   AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD.  DISORGANIZED NATURE OF STORMS SUGGESTS A
   WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS CENTRAL AR.  A REMNANT MCV IS ALSO APPARENT IN THIS REGION. 
   VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG.  AMBIENT STEERING
   FLOW IS QUITE WEAK /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS
   WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND SLOW-MOVING.  HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
   MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
   SEVERE MICROBURST EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  FOR THESE
   REASONS...WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK
   UPDATE.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND GREATER
   COVERAGE OF SEVERE WINDS.
   
   ..HART.. 08/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   34759272 35729128 35968974 35218905 34028954 33339059
               33119194 33249400 33999529 34689506 34439356 34759272