MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD AND NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071823Z - 071930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB. HI-RES CONSENSUS GENERALLY SUGGESTS PRIMARY
   INITIATION AROUND 21-22Z...WITH SUPERCELLS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
   THEREAFTER. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE AMIDST AMPLE DIURNAL
   HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH
   OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE N CNTRL NEB/S CNTRL SD BORDER AND THE
   BLACK HILLS...SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLACK HILLS...ALONG A
   LEE TROUGH IN WRN NEB...AND ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY/REMNANT OUTFLOW OVER CNTRL NEB/SD AS STRATUS CLOUDS
   CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. INCREASED UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE VORT MAX OVER NERN WY CONTINUE EWD.
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS NEAR 7.5-8.5 C/KM
   AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH STRENGTHENED MID/UPPER WLY
   FLOW NEAR 30-50 KT SUGGEST STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME
   SUPERCELLULAR...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...SEVERE WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO BEFORE EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   43440069 42289974 41479942 41119961 41000053 41340160
               42050274 43070334 44200368 44780351 44990299 44390186
               43680106 43440069