MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD...WRN/CNTRL VA AND NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071652Z - 071745Z
   
   COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO
   SEVERE WINDS.
   
   AMPLE SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING TO THE LEE OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
   CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH INITIATION IS
   ONGOING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MORE
   ROBUST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 18-19Z. CURRENTLY WEAK FLOW
   ALOFT SUGGESTS AN INITIAL PREDOMINANCE OF PULSE SEVERE...GRADUALLY
   TRANSITIONING TO SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AS WLY FLOW
   ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE. THESE CLUSTERS WILL THEN PROGRESS EWD TO
   THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SPREADING TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TIME.
   HOWEVER...VERY SATURATED DEEP LAYER PROFILES REFLECTED IN AREA 12Z
   SOUNDINGS...CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2-2.25 INCH AND
   SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 70-79 F...SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
   THE PREDOMINANT THREAT...AND THEREFORE A WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT
   THIS TIME. IF COLD POOLS CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...THEN A WIND
   THREAT MAY BECOME MORE APPARENT AND A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. WARM
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY HAIL THREAT EXISTS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35557820 34917967 35058026 35978041 37357939 38157882
               39087808 39327733 38907696 37887696 35557820