MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY...CNTRL/NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262124Z - 262230Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS COULD EXTEND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND
   AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW686/WW687...OR SWD WW
   EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A
   PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING SWWD FROM SERN NY INTO ERN
   PA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE...EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLULAR OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES TOWARD THE
   COAST...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
   MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE
   OVER LONG ISLAND...WHERE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL OFFER ENHANCED
   MLCINH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PARTS
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   SWINGING THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   41277438 41117287 40707271 40247346 39887417 39857509
               40297700 41237598 41277438