MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 262059Z - 262300Z
   
   NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN SD
   AND INTO ND WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INSTABILITY FORCING AND
   SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WATCH.
   
   VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /14-16C AT 700MB/ ARE LIKELY
   INHIBITING THE INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AMIDST SURFACE LOW
   AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER SD ATTM. WIND SHIFT AND WEAK
   EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND A
   DRYLINE...ARE SPREADING GRADUALLY EAST AS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OF ABOUT 40-50KT WAS CRESTING THE AREA FROM ERN
   WY TO SERN ND. AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM
   MT/WY AND SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT THAT CONTINUED FORCING
   NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH
   CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS
   OCCURS IN THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME...PARAMETERS WILL BE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY
   FOR CELLS NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   SHEAR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   46589834 45709701 44529678 43509892 43190105 43390166
               44050225 44560241 45130242 46100154 46470056 46719985
               46589834