MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SD...WRN AND CNTRL NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262206Z - 262330Z
   
   IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
   SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.
   
   MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR...BUT THE
   INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG THE LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN
   FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT OR LESS...CAPE IS MODERATELY
   LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.  AND LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW
   POINT SPREADS.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED
   DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
   THROUGH 00-01Z.  HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING LATER THIS EVENING COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND PERHAPS A MORE
   ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT... PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   39120338 40030311 41030299 42140238 43140162 43740126
               43750026 43599992 42530042 41510127 39830170 39160223
               39120338