MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 181454Z - 181630Z
   
   THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 656 IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN
   THE SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   SHRINKING CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
   GREEN BAY HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT HAVE
   REACHED THE SURFACE WITH A NARROW SWATH OF WINDS AT LEAST
   APPROACHING AND OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.  SURFACE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH
   ACTIVITY...WITH THE VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING STRONGLY CAPPED.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD
   MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS OF
   LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF MANISTEE BETWEEN NOW AND 16-17Z. 
   HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR CONTINUING STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...
   
   LAT...LON   44598777 44388666 44118561 43518511 43158594 43378722
               43758792 44098813 44368802 44598777