MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN...CNTRL AND SRN WI...NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181130Z - 181330Z
   
   STORM TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED LATER
   THIS MORNING.
   
   RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO SERN MN/WRN
   WI IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED WITH PARCELS ORIGINATING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB.
   PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2.00
   INCHES THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH NWLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS IN
   EXCESS OF 30 KT WHICH IN COMBINATION COULD YIELD A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD A COLD POOL BECOME ORGANIZED. THESE STORMS
   SHOULD GENERALLY ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT AS THEY TRAVEL SEWD ACROSS THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE
   GRADIENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE SE. 
   
   IF STORMS CAN PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEY MAY ENJOY A BOOST
   FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY PROPAGATE IN A
   GENERAL SEWD DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
   LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   43359121 43749154 44219179 44669139 44839102 44889013
               44708951 44488901 43948845 43218806 42358775 42018769
               41858815 41858881 42058935 42949087 43359121