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Mesoscale Discussion 1650 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH INTO WRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181718Z - 181915Z
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE/INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS
LACKLUSTER LAPSE RATES KEEP THE HAIL THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NRN OH INTO WRN PA.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A VORTICITY MAX WAS
ALSO EJECTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN PA. GIVEN A FAVORABLE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO
CNTRL OH/PA AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT...STORMS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK
SEWD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH REGARDS TO STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION GIVEN MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..LEITMAN.. 07/18/2011
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41698340 41498382 41038387 40598370 40288334 40228267
40158110 40137985 40487897 40877858 41257850 41617867
41747892 41578016 41568126 41698340
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