MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AZ.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 050211Z - 050415Z
   
   CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
   PINAL AND CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTIES FROM W-E DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   MERIDIONAL ALIGNED BAND OF TSTMS THAT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
   OVER WRN GRAHAM COUNTY SHOULD MOVE WWD ACROSS ERN PINAL COUNTY THEN
   OVER DESERTS BETWEEN TUS-PHX...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NWWD TURN
   THAT WOULD INCLUDE PHX AREA IN THREAT AS WELL.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM EARLIER TUS AREA ACTIVITY...EVIDENT OVER PINAL COUNTY...ALSO
   SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO PORTIONS PHX AREA AND DECELERATE...LEAVING
   LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT UPON WHICH ADDITIONAL/ENHANCED LIFT
   MAY BE FOCUSED WITH ERN TSTM COMPLEX.  MEANWHILE...TSTMS OVER SWRN
   PINAL COUNTY SHOULD REINFORCE OUTFLOW AIR MASS IN THAT AREA AS IT
   CONTINUES TO SURGE NWWD INTO WRN MARICOPA COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL LIFT
   MAY BE SUPPLIED BY OUTFLOW MOVING WWD/SWWD FROM TSTMS OVER SRN
   YAVAPAI/NWRN GILA COUNTIES.  AIR MASS BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
   W OF ERN TSTMS IS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY ANY PRIOR CONVECTION AND
   WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH SFC TEMPS OVER 100 DEG F ANOTHER COUPLE
   HOURS...DEW POINTS LOW 60S F...AND LIGHT WLY SFC WINDS THAT SHOULD
   ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR WWD-PROPAGATING
   CONVECTION.  BOTH PHX/TUS RAOBS SAMPLED VERY DEEP LAYER OF ELYS
   ALOFT...ESSENTIALLY THROUGH ENTIRE CAPE-BEARING LAYER.  MODIFIED PHX
   RAOB SUGGESTS AROUND 100 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH WELL-MIXED LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC LAYER SUITABLE FOR SUSTAINING DOWNDRAFT WINDS VIA
   EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   LAT...LON   32381048 32971043 33291052 33601119 34251221 34081304
               33811342 33471362 33221368 32981358 32821328 32771270
               32711181 32501120 32381048