MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ND...NRN MN...NWRN WI...WRN LS...ISLE
   ROYALE MI.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598...
   
   VALID 050342Z - 050545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598
   CONTINUES.
   
   QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD
   ACROSS NRN MN...SERN ND AND LS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
   FROM RED RIVER REGION ENEWD ACROSS LS NORTH SHORE.  ALTHOUGH
   SHALLOW/COLD MARINE LAYER INTERVENES...DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO MAY
   PENETRATE THAT LAYER AND AFFECT PORTIONS ISLE ROYALE.
   
   MLCINH IS FCST TO INCREASE -- BOTH WITH SEWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME --
   ACROSS WW AREA...DUE TO COMBINATION OF MARINE LAYER INVOF LS AND
   DIABATIC SFC COOLING OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE LAYER NEAR SFC OVER
   MN.  AS SUCH...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SERN PORTIONS WW
   AND AREAS DOWN SHEAR.  MEANWHILE...EXPECT FORCED ASCENT OF NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...OVER NRN MN AND SERN
   ND...TO SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND
   1000 J/KG OVER COOK COUNTY MN TO 3000 J/KG OVER SERN ND. 
   EARLIER/EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OVER ERN CASS COUNTY ND...NEAR
   INTERSECTION OF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   LINE...HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ABSORBED IN BACKBUILDING SEGMENT OF
   QLCS ACROSS SERN ND.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT
   ALSO...VALUES FROM AROUND 20-25 KT IN ARROWHEAD TO 40-50 KT IN SERN
   ND.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   46399796 46829697 47259597 47249486 47229369 47659230
               48239185 48069152 48089126 48259084 48109077 48129054
               48099005 48028993 48038971 47998943 47988910 48108875
               48188847 48238822 48068853 47908888 47818916 47858924
               47858965 46579049 45989035 46069234 45469387 45419628
               45909686 45949804 46399796