MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SD.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...
   
   VALID 050059Z - 050300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597
   CONTINUES.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT OVER NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL
   SD...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD ACROSS CORSON..NERN MEADE AND ERN
   PENNINGTON COUNTIES...WRAPPING INTO MESOLOW OVER BADLANDS S PHP. 
   QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM LOW SWD ACROSS PERKINS
   COUNTY AND OVER NWRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...MERGING WITH OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY RELATED TO EXISTING MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION FARTHER SSW
   OVER SHERIDAN/GARDEN/CHEYENNE COUNTIES NEB.
   
   THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECIDEDLY MUTED SO FAR OVER MOST
   OF WW AREA OUTSIDE BLACK HILLS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN
   FAVORABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  00Z ABR RAOB INDICATED REMAINING SFC
   HEATING...DEW POINTS 70S F AND 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO RESULTING
   IN MLCAPE ABOUT 3500 J/KG...AMIDST ROUGHLY 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDE.  ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE IS FAVORABLE FOR SVR...AND WITH
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MLCINH...DEVELOPMENT
   REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SFC FRONT.  OUTFLOW FROM BLACK HILLS AND NRN
   NEB ALSO MAY SUPPORT STG-SVR TSTM POTENTIAL OVER SRN PORTIONS WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   43009964 42980405 45910069 45869667 43009964