MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...NRN VA...FAR WRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 041754Z - 041930Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WV...WRN MD
   AND NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. HOWEVER...THE THREATS SHOULD
   REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   THE LATEST MESOANALYSES SHOWS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
   THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM
   1500 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 KT
   RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM
   SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS MULTICELLS
   DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER SFC-TEMPS
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE MCD AREA.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   40157918 40158004 39998082 39498145 38748156 38088132
               37678060 37817949 38477828 39237788 39937824 40157918