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Mesoscale Discussion 1498 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE...NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...
VALID 041848Z - 042015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MAINE AND SRN NH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE 00Z
EXPIRATION OF WW 593.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM SRN NH NNEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MAINE.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM NEAR
DEXTOR IN CNTRL MAINE SSWWD TO NEAR MANCHESTER NH. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS STRONGEST OVER THE NRN PART OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN CNTRL AND NRN MAINE MAY SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FOR WIND DAMAGE MAINLY
DUE TO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
..BROYLES.. 07/04/2011
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...
LAT...LON 42717120 42847149 42997141 43137176 43127206 43167239
43517239 43717229 44107205 44287208 44357168 44577160
44727158 45257138 45267121 45347094 45247085 45407076
45357060 45487076 45787043 45917027 46087033 46187024
46337022 46457006 46646999 47456922 47456906 47306911
47166891 47176865 47306842 47346830 47316821 47066780
45696779 45596745 45456752 45366739 45266748 45136730
45186717 44796691 44586718 44196729 43986763 43886799
43756858 43596879 43256980 42877014 42847036 42717120
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