MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HALF OF AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 041752Z - 041845Z
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCREASING TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG A SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM WRN AR INTO SWRN TN. RAPID TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS AS
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED
   BY RICH THETA-E AIR. A VERY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT /1.8-2 IN PER
   REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET
   DOWNBURSTS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ALSO BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGEST CORES...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS. TSTMS
   SHOULD GENERALLY BE PULSE-TYPE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS /GIVEN
   VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/...WITH SLOW PROPAGATION ALONG
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
   LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS GIVEN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND
   WEAK STEERING FLOW. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
   EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34168838 33768932 33559212 33709368 34239421 34689352
               35239171 35479006 35818905 35948861 35588815 34868811
               34428818 34168838