MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY...ERN TN...WRN NC...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041610Z - 041745Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
   AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SE KY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG A
   TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSES SHOWS
   MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS IS UNCAPPED AND LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE NOW BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.50 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F/ SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO WRN AND CNTRL VA
   SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THERE AS STORMS
   MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   LMK...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   35778218 36008127 36218039 36667746 37937665 38657816
               37768191 37408317 37368430 36758510 36088510 35648433
               35658307 35778218