MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SERN VA...ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 271715Z - 271815Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A
   SVR TSTM WATCH IS LIKELY.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT THE CU FIELD BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
   PROPAGATING INLAND OVER ERN CAROLINAS...WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE
   PLUMES EVOLVING OVER PORTIONS OF COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM FAR SERN
   VA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC IS ALSO PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR A
   BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD...OUT OF WHICH DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP. THE MOREHEAD CITY NC 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR
   CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- I.E.
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S --
   YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
   J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH PWAT VALUES IN
   EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES ENHANCING WATER LOADING PROCESSES. AS
   SUCH...WET MICROBURSTS WITH ATTENDANT DMGG SFC WINDS WILL BE OF
   CONCERN WITH STORMS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER
   MORE OF A PULSE STORM MODE...THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS OF UPSCALE
   GROWTH COULD OCCUR WITH MERGING COLD POOLS WHERE THE SVR WIND THREAT
   COULD LOCALLY BE ENHANCED. MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ALSO OF NOTE...A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   700-MB FLOW NEAR THE SFC FRONT COULD PROVIDE A MORE FOCUSED THREAT
   FOR DMGG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NC RESULTING FROM DOWNWARD
   TRANSPORT OF STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   LAT...LON   32498048 33038055 33657977 34307942 35197974 36467855
               37097684 37097617 36957589 36607571 36217560 35837544
               35287539 34877608 34537714 33987776 33817813 33707876
               33177915 32677967 32498048