MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN AL...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN
   GA...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 271844Z - 272045Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO
   NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   LATENT HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL GA IS SERVING TO REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PROVIDED
   BY THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   THE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO THE DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC
   HEATING ZONE OVER THE WRN AND SRN FRINGES OF THE COLD
   POOL...COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH
   TOWARD THE ATLANTA AREA...COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN
   AL AND WRN/SRN GA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE AT
   THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WELL
   TO THE N/NW OF THE REGION COULD IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 23Z.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.
   OVERLAYING THIS REGION IS THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT
   MAX...WHERE THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER OWING TO ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
   CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED PORTION OF THE VORT MAX.
   
   A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES ON THE WARM SIDE OF
   THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES /PER GPS TOTAL
   PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT/ WILL SUPPORT WATER LOADING WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG
   WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   THIS THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND THE
   CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...WHERE THE TIGHTER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
   WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL YIELD STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FLOW /PER AREA VWP DATA/ AND OCCASIONALLY MORE
   ORGANIZED/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...WEAK ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ATOP THE COLD POOL COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH SMALL
   HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL GA...THOUGH SFC-BASED CINH WILL LIKELY
   MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30178609 30518672 31168711 32018709 32958670 33888592
               34068545 34018470 33328320 31758234 30808267 30238338
               29968413 29898515 30178609