MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...TN...KY...IL...IN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 271630Z - 271800Z
   
   STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE MO
   BOOTHEEL EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AREAS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
   THE NOON HOUR CDT.
   
   SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND
   LIGHTNING STRIKE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LAST HOUR OR SO.
   THESE STORMS ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD
   POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS MO/IL.
   WHILE LIFT ACROSS THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL WAS LIKELY AIDING ONGOING
   STORMS...EXPECT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION TO
   AID ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SURFACE WARM
   SECTOR...FROM WRN TO CNTRL/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON.
   AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A 400-1000 J PER KG
   INCREASE IN MLCAPE OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS AND THIS IS LIKELY NOW
   BEING REALIZED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION GIVEN THE RECENTLY OBSERVED
   INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/LIGHTNING.
   
   ALONG WITH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...BELT OF
   40-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...PREFERENTIALLY DIRECTED INTO THE N-S
   BANDS OF STORMS...ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEEDING 1000 J PER
   KG...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   38078779 38198619 37728435 35918505 35498759 35528997
               36289026 38078779