MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MD...VA...NC...DC...EXTREME NRN PORTIONS
   SC/GA...SERN TN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241705Z - 241930Z
   
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TSTMS OVER PIEDMONT/COASTAL
   PLAIN/TIDEWATER REGIONS OF VA SWWD ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
   CAROLINAS.  MAIN THREAT WITH SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. 
   MOSTLY MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.  WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
   MID-AFTERNOON OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   IS AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD NEAR
   HGR...CHO...AVL THEN BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD OVER SRN TN.
   CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF
   FRONT...AND BEHIND EWD-MOVING CIRRUS PLUME EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY
   FROM HAMPTON ROADS REGION SWWD TOWARD CAE.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH SUFFICIENT SFC MOISTURE NEAR ESSENTIALLY COMMINGLED
   THERMAL/MOIST AXES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND REMOVAL OF MLCINH ACROSS THIS REGION.
   ADDITIONALLY...ACTIVITY ALREADY HAS FORMED INVOF FRONT OVER ERN TN
   AND WILL MOVE INTO NC.  SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F WILL
   SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH
   SWD EXTENT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM AROUND 40
   KT OVER MD TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF SC AND NRN GA.  LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK SPEEDS AND VEERED
   SFC WINDS IN MOST LOCALES.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
   MULTICELLULAR...WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTERED MODES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
   GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   35398620 35538353 36058177 37057948 39177766 39657727
               39197623 38437577 37777546 37087594 36937600 36757606
               36627614 36397632 35837669 35377723 34877902 34868349
               35398620